A short introduction Cookie policy

Solution to: Miss the Mark

Each shot has a chance of 1/3 to be the best. This is because the result of a shot is not dependent on an earlier shot. The chance that the third shot is not the best shot is 1 minus the chance that the third shot is the best shot. Therefore, the answer is 2/3.

You can also look at the possible outcomes. Call the three successive arrows A, B and C. We know that arrow B is further from the bull's-eye than arrow A, so after shooting arrow C the following three outcomes are possible:

Best Worst
ABC
ACB
CAB

For two of the three outcomes, arrow C is worse than arrow A.



back to the puzzle

Copyright © 1996-2016. RJE-productions. All rights reserved. No part of this website may be published, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission of the authors.
This website uses cookies. By further use of this website, or by clicking on 'Continue', you give permission for the use of cookies. If you want more information, look at our cookie policy.Continue